[h=1]How to bet World Cup semis[/h][h=3]Germany to win in regulation among the best bets for final four teams[/h]
By James Eastham | ESPN Insider
The 2014 World Cup semifinals take place Tuesday and Wednesday. First up Tuesday is an enticing rematch of the 2002 World Cup final between depleted hosts Brazil and Germany. On Wednesday, Netherlands, the 2012 runners-up, take on Lionel Messi's Argentina.
With two terrific games on tap, let's take a look at the best bets for each matchup.
[h=3]Brazil vs. Germany[/h]
Asian handicap: Brazil +0 (-106) vs. Germany +0 (EVEN)
3-way line: Brazil +178 / Germany +183 / Draw +225
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 51 percent Germany
Total: 2 (Over -109, Under +100)
Is this the game where Brazil's World Cup ambitions come crashing down? The absence through suspension of Brazil captain and key center back Thiago Silva and through injury of four-goal top scorer and tournament poster boy Neymar are massive blows for coach Luis Felipe Scolari.
Brazil's performance level has been no better than Germany's so far, and that's with a Brazil side that has had Silva and Neymar in its ranks. Much of Germany's play has been unremarkable but they have a number of players with vast tournament experience, meaning they are used to dealing with high-pressure situations and are ideally equipped to prey upon weaknesses in the Brazil side.<OFFER></OFFER>
For the first time at the tournament, Brazil are something other than strong favorites to win in 90 minutes. While some may see that as a great opportunity to back the hosts at bigger odds than you normally find, I would rather support a Germany side that has adapted pretty well to the South American conditions, shown an ability to control games from the front or come from behind and, unlike Brazil, does not have to take to the field without two of its key performers.
With our pick, you'll get your stakes back if the game ends level after 90 minutes, and make a profit if Germany wins in normal time.
The pick: Germany +0 Asian handicap (EVEN)
[h=3]Argentina vs. Netherlands[/h]
Asian handicap: Argentina -0.25 (+105) vs. Netherlands +0.25 (-112)
3-way line: Argentina +141 / Netherlands +238 / Draw +223
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 50-50
Total: 2 (Over -105, Under -103)
There is a growing sense that this could be Argentina's tournament, with the magical feet of Messi driving them on and archrivals Brazil facing a massive double handicap going into the semifinals (see above).
It might well end up being Argentina's year, but they're still a little overrated to win this potentially gruelling semifinal against Netherlands. Louis van Gaal's underdogs may have needed penalties to see off obdurate quarterfinalists Costa Rica (0-0 after 120 minutes), but the Dutch players will have received a massive injection of confidence from winning on penalties -- the torturous game-settler that has so often proved their undoing at previous major events. Several players in the Dutch camp have spoken in awestruck tones about van Gaal's ability to innovate and inspire since they touched down on Brazilian soil, so the one thing you can be sure of is that the team will not leave this tournament without putting up a monumental fight.
Individually, Argentina have a slight talent edge -- the Albiceleste, after all, have Messi, whereas Holland have "Messi lite" in Arjen Robben -- but it's worth noting that Angel Di Maria, Argentina's second-most effective attacker (yes, despite his poor round of 16 performance against Switzerland) has been ruled out of this game by injury.
Taking all factors into account, this looks close to a 50-50 game for me. Netherlands are the clear 'dog, so they're worth backing. With our pick, you'll make money if Netherlands win or draw in 90 minutes.
The pick: Netherlands +0.25 Asian handicap (-112)
By James Eastham | ESPN Insider
The 2014 World Cup semifinals take place Tuesday and Wednesday. First up Tuesday is an enticing rematch of the 2002 World Cup final between depleted hosts Brazil and Germany. On Wednesday, Netherlands, the 2012 runners-up, take on Lionel Messi's Argentina.
With two terrific games on tap, let's take a look at the best bets for each matchup.
[h=3]Brazil vs. Germany[/h]
Asian handicap: Brazil +0 (-106) vs. Germany +0 (EVEN)
3-way line: Brazil +178 / Germany +183 / Draw +225
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 51 percent Germany
Total: 2 (Over -109, Under +100)
Is this the game where Brazil's World Cup ambitions come crashing down? The absence through suspension of Brazil captain and key center back Thiago Silva and through injury of four-goal top scorer and tournament poster boy Neymar are massive blows for coach Luis Felipe Scolari.
Brazil's performance level has been no better than Germany's so far, and that's with a Brazil side that has had Silva and Neymar in its ranks. Much of Germany's play has been unremarkable but they have a number of players with vast tournament experience, meaning they are used to dealing with high-pressure situations and are ideally equipped to prey upon weaknesses in the Brazil side.<OFFER></OFFER>
For the first time at the tournament, Brazil are something other than strong favorites to win in 90 minutes. While some may see that as a great opportunity to back the hosts at bigger odds than you normally find, I would rather support a Germany side that has adapted pretty well to the South American conditions, shown an ability to control games from the front or come from behind and, unlike Brazil, does not have to take to the field without two of its key performers.
With our pick, you'll get your stakes back if the game ends level after 90 minutes, and make a profit if Germany wins in normal time.
The pick: Germany +0 Asian handicap (EVEN)
[h=3]Argentina vs. Netherlands[/h]
Asian handicap: Argentina -0.25 (+105) vs. Netherlands +0.25 (-112)
3-way line: Argentina +141 / Netherlands +238 / Draw +223
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 50-50
Total: 2 (Over -105, Under -103)
There is a growing sense that this could be Argentina's tournament, with the magical feet of Messi driving them on and archrivals Brazil facing a massive double handicap going into the semifinals (see above).
It might well end up being Argentina's year, but they're still a little overrated to win this potentially gruelling semifinal against Netherlands. Louis van Gaal's underdogs may have needed penalties to see off obdurate quarterfinalists Costa Rica (0-0 after 120 minutes), but the Dutch players will have received a massive injection of confidence from winning on penalties -- the torturous game-settler that has so often proved their undoing at previous major events. Several players in the Dutch camp have spoken in awestruck tones about van Gaal's ability to innovate and inspire since they touched down on Brazilian soil, so the one thing you can be sure of is that the team will not leave this tournament without putting up a monumental fight.
Individually, Argentina have a slight talent edge -- the Albiceleste, after all, have Messi, whereas Holland have "Messi lite" in Arjen Robben -- but it's worth noting that Angel Di Maria, Argentina's second-most effective attacker (yes, despite his poor round of 16 performance against Switzerland) has been ruled out of this game by injury.
Taking all factors into account, this looks close to a 50-50 game for me. Netherlands are the clear 'dog, so they're worth backing. With our pick, you'll make money if Netherlands win or draw in 90 minutes.
The pick: Netherlands +0.25 Asian handicap (-112)
